Who Are We?
EUCAM (European Union Climate Action & Monitoring) is a dedicated academic think tank composed of social and behavioral scientists focused on the deep and escalating challenges Europe faces due to global warming and climate change. Our mission is to understand and anticipate the profound political, economic, and sociological impacts these environmental transformations are already triggering—and will continue to accelerate—in EU member states.
The risks ahead are not speculative—they are imminent. From destabilized political systems to large-scale population displacement and economic disintegration, climate change is rapidly becoming a multiplier of existing crises. EUCAM works to confront this reality by building concrete, actionable strategies for resilience.
Our think tank specializes in assessing systemic vulnerabilities across the European Union. This includes forecasting the breakdown of democratic institutions in the wake of extreme natural disasters, analyzing the resilience of social contracts under duress, and identifying potential failure points in governance systems exposed to ecological collapse.
Two core research trajectories define our contribution to climate adaptation strategy. First, we examine how governments and political institutions can psychologically and operationally prepare for mass behavioral reactions during climate catastrophes. This includes panic contagion, institutional trust erosion, group disintegration, and fear-driven civic instability. Using frameworks from political psychology and crisis governance, we provide guidance for effective anticipatory policy and psychological preparedness protocols.
Second, we investigate the role of intelligence services in early detection, risk signaling, and behavioral influence. Our work informs how intelligence infrastructure can be ethically and efficiently mobilized to forecast societal breakdowns, facilitate calm communication, and support democratic continuity during periods of disorder and disinformation.
Additionally, EUCAM develops and deploys advanced intelligence collection and analysis methodologies. These tools enable EU institutions and national governments to obtain the maximum actionable insight into fast-developing threats—from food insecurity and infrastructure collapse to migration surges and civil unrest.
EUCAM’s ongoing research supports the creation of adaptive policy frameworks that prepare the EU not only to survive these changes, but to govern through them. By grounding our recommendations in social science, real-time data, and scenario-based planning, we provide the strategic foresight needed to maintain political stability and social cohesion in an increasingly volatile climate.
The work of EUCAM is critical. Without early, informed, and coordinated action, the European Union risks entering an era of chronic crisis. Our mission is to ensure that does not happen.
Psychological Assessment
The Psychological Assessment team within EUCAM operates as an academic think tank composed of interdisciplinary scholars specializing in social psychology, behavioral science, disaster sociology, and cognitive risk analysis. Our mission is to explore and model the psychological and behavioral implications of climate-induced catastrophes across European populations and leadership structures.
Europe is increasingly vulnerable to a spectrum of climate-related disasters, including but not limited to extreme heatwaves, glacial destabilization, flash flooding, wildfires, and prolonged droughts. These events, compounded by cascading system failures, are expected to produce not only material devastation but also profound psychosocial stressors at both the collective and individual level.
Our research focuses on pre-crisis psychological states and the forecasting of mass behavioral responses during high-intensity disruptions. Using empirical frameworks such as Protection Motivation Theory, Social Amplification of Risk, and Mass Panic Dynamics, we analyze phenomena like panic behavior, collective fear contagion, breakdown of social norms, rumor proliferation, scapegoating, and the erosion of interpersonal trust. Central to our work is the study of disillusionment, learned helplessness, and behavioral regression under conditions of institutional collapse.
Crucially, EUCAM also investigates the psychological vulnerabilities of political leaders and public institutions. Evidence from disaster psychology shows that governmental collapse—whether symbolic or functional—can occur rapidly during crises, creating a temporary vacuum of authority. We explore how to psychologically prime populations for scenarios involving the absence or dysfunction of governance, with the goal of preserving order, social capital, and adaptive resilience.
EUCAM develops strategies for psychological inoculation—pre-emptive education and cognitive framing that build mental preparedness for worst-case scenarios. We also assess the efficacy of decentralized leadership structures, trust transference mechanisms, and behavioral nudges during emergency transitions.
By embedding psychological intelligence within climate adaptation policy, EUCAM provides a critical layer of insight into how both citizens and institutions can anticipate, interpret, and endure crises without descending into social fragmentation or institutional collapse.
Government and Intelligence Readiness for Climate Challenges
At EUCAM, one of our central research fields explores how governments and intelligence institutions can and must prepare for climate-driven disruptions—socially, politically, and strategically. While mass displacement from sub-Saharan Africa due to desertification and ecological collapse presents a stark and immediate concern, this scenario is only one dimension of the broader challenges that Europe will face due to accelerating climate change. We emphasize this example not because it is singular.
Our research focuses on understanding how social systems, public trust, and institutional legitimacy respond under environmental duress. The migration crisis driven by African climate collapse offers a lens to study rapid demographic shifts, institutional overload, psychological dislocation, and the strain placed on border, security, and health infrastructures. But other scenarios, rooted within the European continent, demand equally urgent attention.
We hypothesize that climate-driven internal displacement in Europe—such as from flooded river basins, wildfire-prone regions, or heatwave-exposed cities—could create sudden interregional population pressures, housing crises, and local political instability. Water scarcity in southern Europe, for instance, may trigger economic downturns in agriculture and tourism, accelerating unemployment and triggering civic unrest.
In northern and central Europe, recurring infrastructure failures caused by extreme weather could erode public confidence in democratic governance. Power grid collapses, transportation paralysis, or failures in digital systems due to overheating or flooding could feed public anxiety, creating opportunities for political extremism or authoritarian tendencies to emerge.
From a security and intelligence perspective, we analyze how these compound risks require new models of early warning and scenario planning. Traditional military intelligence is not equipped to monitor environmental stressors or population behavior under chronic environmental degradation. EUCAM is developing frameworks that integrate climate forecasting, behavioral analysis, and psychological stress mapping to support decision-makers with real-time, actionable insights.
We are also assessing how disinformation and political manipulation could exploit
environmental emergencies. Climate-linked crises can be used by adversarial actors—state or non-state—to stoke fear, deepen polarization, and disrupt democratic processes.
Furthermore, our work considers the ethical application of artificial intelligence in crisis prediction, migration modeling, and mass communication. As surveillance capabilities expand, EUCAM advocates for a balance between national security interests and the preservation of civil liberties.
In sum, we believe that climate change will not only transform Europe’s ecosystems but will challenge the integrity of its institutions. Our mission is to advance the interdisciplinary research needed to foresee, understand, and mitigate these impacts—before reactive crisis management becomes the only option.